What is “Expected Value” And Why Should Every Gambler Know About It?


Nowadays, there will not be enough fingers on both hands to count all of the gambling entertainments that are offered in the Polish gambling market.

Those residing in Poland and wanting to immerse in the gambling atmosphere may give a simple online request “gry hazardowe za darmo 77777” and try any of the suggested casino game options, which seem to be countless.  

Of course, the primary aim of playing online casino games is to win money and receive additional bonuses. But all games of this type have one key characteristic – winning depends not on the player’s skills but on chance. Despite this, gamblers can still determine the probability of a particular combination, as well as learn about their chances of winning. All this is possible thanks to mathematical calculations. Knowing the critical concept of expected value is the correct route to obtaining the best possible outcome from every play.

Expected Value In Gambling

Expected Value: What Is It?

The expected value is determined among the probability theory concepts. It is defined as the average probable value of a random variable. In the field of gambling, these concepts denote the amount that a player can win or lose if they make the same bets during a long period. From a practical point of view, understanding the expected value can be of great help in budgeting, as well as in controlling it over several games.

There are two types of expected values: positive or negative. For example, in a game of roulette, in percentage terms, black comes out more often than red. As a result, when betting on black, the mathematical expectation will be positive, and on red – negative. Also, this indicator can be equal to zero. When we would like to know the chances to win the game, we should consider the ratio of negative outcomes of the game to positive ones. The easiest way to check this theory is to toss a coin: the probability of both sides is equal. There can be either heads or tails, the other options are not given. Thus, the probability of either of the options is 50%. It shows the possible frequency of the expected result. The event will not take place if the probability is equal to zero. When it is equal to one (100%) – the event (win or loss) will definitely happen.

Also Read: Why is Online Casino Gambling Beneficial for Everyone in India? Win-win relationship.

How to calculate the expected value?

The following steps are required to calculate the expected value:

  1. The probability of a positive result is multiplied by the number of possible winnings. 
  2. The probability of a negative result is multiplied by the amount of the loss. 
  3. Then, from the first value, you need to subtract the amount obtained in the second step.

How to use knowledge about the expected value?

To play the casino, you don’t need to be a great mathematician, understand such complex concepts as probability theory and variance, or know the law of large numbers. The mathematicians have already calculated everything, and you can simply use the already obtained results. For example, it was shown that games with higher expected value are less advantageous for casinos and are more beneficial for gamblers. Therefore, when choosing a roulette game, for example, you should stop at the European version (with one “zero”), because, in this case, the advantage of the casino is only 2.7%, while in the American version (with two “zeros”) – 5.26%.

Also Read: Offline & Online Casino – Your Choice

Final Words

It’s difficult to accurately predict the success or failure of a play. At the same time, playing by just relying on luck is a rather ineffective strategy that usually leads nowhere for novice players who, at best, simply get frustrated and quit playing. Thus, it is better to use formulas but be ready to scroll frequently in order to understand the principle of expected value. All this is time and money-consuming, but the result may be worth it. 


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